39 resultados para Basic Reproduction Number

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture; Fisheries and Forestry


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The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

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This study determined the starvation tolerance of Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) and Sitophilus oryzae (L.) in terms of both adult survival and reproduction, the impact of starvation on reproduction not having been studied before. Experiments were conducted at 30°C and 55% or 70% r.h. using a laboratory strain and a field strain of each species. The number of progeny was a better indicator of the impact of starvation on a species than adult survival. Tribolium castaneum was the most tolerant species, requiring up to 35 d starvation before no progeny were produced. Rhyzopertha dominica and S. oryzae required up to 8 d starvation before no progeny were produced. The results suggest that hygiene will have a greater impact on populations of S. oryzae and R. dominica than T. castaneum.

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The spotted gum species complex represents a group of four eucalypt hardwood taxa that have a native range that spans the east coast of Australia, with a morphological cline from Victoria to northern Queensland. Of this group, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV) is widespread in south-eastern Queensland and northern New South Wales. It is currently the most commonly harvested native hardwood in Queensland. However, little basic knowledge of the reproductive biology of the species is available to inform genetic improvement and resource management programmes. Here we take an integrative approach, using both field and molecular data, to identify ecological factors important to mating patterns in native populations of CCV. Field observation of pollinator visitation and flowering phenology of 20 trees showed that foraging behaviour of pollinator guilds varies depending on flowering phenology and canopy structure. A positive effect of tree mean flowering effort was found on insect visitation, while bat visitation was predicted by tree height and by the number of trees simultaneously bearing flowers. Moreover, introduced honeybees were observed frequently, performing 73% of detected flower visits. Conversely, nectar-feeding birds and mammals were observed sporadically with lorikeets and honeyeaters each contributing to 11% of visits. Fruit bats, represented solely by the grey-headed flying fox, performed less than 2% of visits. Genotyping at six microsatellite markers in 301 seeds from 17 families sampled from four of Queensland's native forests showed that CCV displays a mixed-mating system that is mostly outcrossing (tm = 0.899 ± 0.021). Preferential effective pollination from near-neighbours was detected by means of maximum-likelihood paternity analysis with up to 16% of reproduction events resulting from selfing. Forty to 48% of fertilising pollen was also carried from longer distance (>60 m). Marked differences in foraging behaviour and visitation frequency between observed pollinator guilds suggests that the observed dichotomy of effective pollen movement in spotted gums may be due to frequent visit from introduced honeybees favouring geitonogamy and sporadic visits from honeyeaters and fruit bats resulting in potential long-distance pollinations.

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Zebu (Bos indicus) crossbred beef cows (Droughtmaster) were maintained long-term (16 months) on standard nutrition (SN) or improved nutrition (IN). Cows on IN had better body condition and greater (P<0.05) circulating concentrations of leptin than cows on SN (0.7±0.1n/ml and 1.7±0.1n/ml, respectively). There were no outstanding differences between SN and IN cows in basal number of ovarian follicles (≤4mm, 5-8mm, and≥9mm) and there were also no differences in number of oocytes recovered by oocyte pick-up. Cows on IN had a greater (P<0.05) number of total follicles after stimulation with FSH than cows on SN. Oocytes from cows on IN had greater (P<0.05) lipid content than cows on SN (-0.23±0.16 and 0.20±0.18 arbitrary units, respectively) and oocytes of the former cows also tended to have more active mitochondria, although this was not significant. Cows on IN showed a positive relationship (R2=0.31, P<0.05) between plasma leptin and oocyte lipid content. Lipids are utilized by oocytes during high energy consumptive processes including fertilization and early cleavage. The greater lipid content of oocytes from IN cows could therefore confer a reproductive advantage. The present study has shown relationships between nutrition, body condition, circulating leptin, and oocyte lipid content, but a clear cause-and-effect requires further investigation in the cow. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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One of the loci responsible for strong phosphine resistance encodes dihydrolipoamide dehydrogenase (DLD). The strong co-incidence of enzyme complexes that contain DLD, and enzymes that require thiamine as a cofactor, motivated us to test whether the thiamine deficiency of polished white rice could influence the efficacy of phosphine fumigation against insect pests of stored grain. Three strains of Sitophilus oryzae (susceptible, weak and strong resistance) were cultured on white rice (thiamine deficient), brown rice or whole wheat. As thiamine is an essential nutrient, we firstly evaluated the effect of white rice on developmental rate and fecundity and found that both were detrimentally affected by this diet. The mean time to reach adult stage for the three strains ranged from 40 to 43 days on brown rice and 50–52 days on white rice. The mean number of offspring for the three strains ranged from 7.7 to 10.3 per female over a three day period on brown rice and 2.1 to 2.6 on white rice. Growth and reproduction on wheat was similar to that on brown rice except that the strongly resistant strain showed a tendency toward reduced fecundity on wheat. The susceptible strain exhibited a modest increase in tolerance to phosphine on white rice as expected if thiamine deficiency could mimic the effect of the dld resistance mutation at the rph2 locus. The strongly resistant strain did not respond to thiamine deficiency, but this was expected as these insects are already strongly resistant. We failed, however, to observe the expected synergistic increase in resistance due to combining thiamine deficiency with the weakly resistant strain. The lack of interaction between thiamine content of the diet and the resistance genotype in determining the phosphine resistance phenotype suggests that the mode of inhibition of the complexes is a critical determinant of resistance.

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Recolonisation and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow was examined by creating gaps (50×50 cm) in the meadow and manipulating the supply of sexual and asexual propagules. Measurements of leaf shoot density and estimates of above-ground biomass were conducted monthly to measure recovery of gaps between September 1995 and November 1997. Measurements of the seeds stored in the sediment (seed bank) and horizontal rhizome growth of colonising species were also conducted to determine their role in the recovery process. Asexual colonisation through horizontal rhizome growth from the surrounding meadow was the main mechanism for colonisation of gaps created in the meadow. The seed bank played no role in recolonisation of cleared plots. Total shoot density and above-ground biomass (all species pooled) of cleared plots recovered asexually to the level of the undisturbed controls in 10 and 7 months, respectively. There was some sexual recruitment into cleared plots where asexual colonisation was prevented but seagrass abundance (shoot density and biomass) did not reach the level of unmanipulated controls. Seagrass species did not appear to form seed banks despite some species being capable of producing long-lived seeds. The species composition of cleared plots remained different to the undisturbed controls throughout the 26-month experiment. Syringodium isoetifolium was a rapid asexual coloniser of disturbed plots and remained at higher abundances than in the control treatments for the duration of the study. S. isoetifolium had the fastest horizontal rhizome growth of species asexually colonising cleared plots (6.9 mm day−1). Halophila ovalis was the most successful sexual coloniser but was displaced by asexually colonising species. H. ovalis was the only species observed to produce fruits during the study. Small disturbances in the meadow led to long-term (>2 years) changes in community composition. This study demonstrated that succession in tropical seagrass communities was not a deterministic process. Variations in recovery observed for different tropical seagrass communities highlighted the importance of understanding life history characteristics of species within individual communities to effectively predict their response to disturbance. A reproductive strategy involving clonal growth and production of long-lived, locally dispersed seeds is suggested which may provide an evolutionary advantage to plants growing in tropical environments subject to temporally unpredictable major disturbances such as cyclones

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By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

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The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

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The Australian endemic skate Dipturus polyommata collected from by-catch of a benthic prawn fishery off southern Queensland was examined to provide information on reproduction and diet. Morphological relationships of total length (LT) to disc width and LT to mass were estimated. Size at birth was estimated at c. 100-110 mm and size at first feeding at c. 105-110 mm LT. Size at 50% maturity (LT50 and 95% CI) was 321 (305-332) and 300 (285-306) mm LT for females and males, respectively. Size at first maturity corresponded to 87.7% of observed maximum size in females (366 mm LT) and 87.5% in males (343 mm L T). Two females, representing 18.2% of mature females sampled in the austral winter were each carrying two egg cases. Descriptions of egg cases are given. Diet described by the index of relative importance as a percentage (%IRI) was predominantly crustacean based with carid shrimps (53.64%) and penaeoid prawns (23.30%) the most significant prey groups. Teleosts (11.72%), gammarid amphipods (5.31%) and mysids (4.72%) were also important to the diet of the species, while a further six prey groups made only a minor contribution to diet (1.31%). An ontogenetic change was evident between the diets of immature and mature skates. Immature animals fed more extensively on carids and amphipods and mature animals on penaeoids, teleosts and mysids.

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Approximately 30% of plant nuclear genes appear to encode proteins targeted to the plastids or endoplasmic reticulum (ER). The signals that direct proteins into these compartments are diverse in sequence, but, on the basis of a limited number of tests in heterologous systems, they appear to be functionally conserved across species. To further test the generality of this conclusion, we tested the ability of two plastid transit peptides and an ER signal peptide to target green fluorescent protein (GFP) in 12 crops, including three monocots (barley, sugarcane, wheat) and nine dicots (Arabidopsis, broccoli, cabbage, carrot, cauliflower, lettuce, radish, tobacco, turnip). In all species, transient assays following microprojectile bombardment or vacuum infiltration using Agrobacterium showed that the plastid transit peptides from tomato DCL (defective chloroplast and leaves) and tobacco RbcS [ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase (Rubisco) small subunit] genes were effective in targeting GFP to the leaf plastids. GFP engineered as a fusion to the N-terminal ER signal peptide from Arabidopsis basic chitinase and a C-terminal HDEL signal for protein retention in the ER was accumulated in the ER of all species. The results in tobacco were confirmed in stably transformed cells. These signal sequences should be useful to direct proteins to the plastid stroma or ER lumen in diverse plant species of biotechnological interest for the accumulation of particular recombinant proteins or for the modification of particular metabolic streams.

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Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the efficacy of spinosad (a biopesticide), chlorpyrifos-methyl (an organophosphorus compound (OP)) and s-methoprene (a juvenile hormone analogue) applied alone and in binary combinations against five stored-grain beetles in wheat. There were three strains of Rhyzopertha dominica, and one strain each of Sitophilus oryzae, Tribolium castaneum, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and Cryptolestes ferrugineus. These strains were chosen to represent a range of possible resistant genotypes, exhibiting resistance to organophosphates, pyrethroids or methoprene. Treatments were applied at rates that are registered or likely to be registered in Australia. Adults were exposed to freshly treated wheat for 2 weeks, and the effects of treatments on mortality and reproduction were determined. No single protectant or protectant combination controlled all insect strains, based on the criterion of >99% reduction in the number of live F1 adults relative to the control. The most effective combinations were spinosad at 1 mg kg-1+chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for OP-resistant O. surinamensis, and chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1+s-methoprene at 0.6 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for methoprene-resistant R. dominica. The results of this study demonstrate the difficulty in Australia, and potentially other countries which use protectants, of finding protectant treatments to control a broad range of pest species in the face of resistance development.

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Brassicaceae plants have the potential as part of an integrated approach to replace fumigant nematicides, providing the biofumigation response following their incorporation is not offset by reproduction of plant-parasitic nematodes on their roots. Forty-three Brassicaceae cultivars were screened in a pot trial for their ability to reduce reproduction of three root-knot nematode isolates from north Queensland, Australia: M. arenaria (NQ1), M. javanica (NQ2) and M. arenaria race 2 (NQ5/7). No cultivar was found to consistently reduce nematode reproduction relative to forage sorghum, the current industry standard, although a commercial fodder radish (Raphanus sativus) and a white mustard (Sinapis alba) line were consistently as resistant to the formation of galls as forage sorghum. A second pot trial screened five commercially available Brassicaceae cultivars, selected for their biofumigation potential, for resistance to two nematode species, M. javanica (NQ2) and M. arenaria (NQ5/7). The fodder radish cv. Weedcheck, was found to be as resistant as forage sorghum to nematode reproduction. A multivariate cluster analysis using the resistance measurements, gall index, nematode number per g of root and multiplication for two nematode species (NQ2 and NQ5/7) confirmed the similarity in resistance between the radish cultivar and forage sorghum. A field trial confirmed the resistance of the fodder radish cv. Weedcheck, with a similar reduction in the number of Meloidogyne spp. juveniles recovered from the roots 8 weeks after planting. The use of fodder radish cultivars as biofumigation crops to manage root-knot nematodes in tropical vegetable production systems deserves further investigation.

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The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

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Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

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We tested the capacity of several published multispectral indices to estimate the nitrogen nutrition of wheat canopies grown under different levels of water supply and plant density and derived a simple canopy reflectance index that is greatly independent of those factors. Planar domain geometry was used to account for mixed signals from the canopy and soil when the ground cover was low. A nitrogen stress index was developed, which adjusts shoot %N for plant biomass and area, thereby accounting for environmental conditions that affect growth, such as crop water status. The canopy chlorophyll content index (CCCi) and the modified spectral ratio planar index (mSRPi) could explain 68 and 69% of the observed variability in the nitrogen nutrition of the crop as early as Zadoks 33, irrespective of water status or ground cover. The CCCi was derived from the combination of 3 wavebands 670, 720 and 790 nm, and the mSRPi from 445, 705 and 750 nm, together with broader bands in the NIR and RED. The potential for their spatial application over large fields/paddocks is discussed.